There is no front line in the Russo-Ukraine war. Swarms of drones and new missiles and anti-air attack technologies blanket the battlefield. Nothing can survive near where the “front” would have been in other wars. Instead, there is a 40-mile wide no man’s land. Last week, a column of vehicles carrying Russian troops approached it – and were annihilated by one of Ukraine’s UAV battalions.
Putin keeps throwing men into such attacks as if nothing has changed. That may be why Russia has lost about 800,000 troops in the war in 4-1/2 years, while Ukraine has lost around 100,000. Both sides target infrastructure (Russia terroristically). But with missiles and drones, not carpet bombing by airplanes. It is a new type of warfare for the digital/battery/AI age.
At the same time, some things never change. Israel can kill 75,000 Gazans and level the place with no victory in sight because victory in war remains a political objective, and Netanyahu has no way to get to one. Similar for President Trump in Iran. Although here, too, drones and missiles have kicked over the chessboard. Iran can hit U.S. bases and Gulf states’ infrastructure – and deny access to the Hormuz Strait. The USA has depleted much of its missile stock, and it might take 3-5 years to replace them.
More revolutionary technologies are coming to war. Many nations are integrating AI into combat, logistics, war planning, and even decision making, the latter maybe more later than now, but it is coming. North Korea plans to build hundreds more nuclear weapons, I read, and President Trump has all but agreed to let Saudi Arabia build its own. Japan and others may follow. Want more good news? According to a news account, an AI model recently created a brand-new biowarfare virus, a disease with no cure.
So, in September, the World Affairs Discussion Group will take on this morbid but important global topic. What effect will the democratization of new war technologies have on the global future? If it strengthens deterrence and makes wars more costly to aggressors, could we all be better off? Or do new weapons always end up being used until enough countries learn enough hard lessons? That doesn’t even consider non-state groups, like terrorist orgs, getting these weapons, BTW.
A lot has been written about this subject and below are some good ones I saved, I think.
Optional background readings –
— Drone Warfare’s Terrifying AI-Enabled Next Step Is Imminent. Recommended.
— Under Trump, US military is all in on using AI. This will greatly empower these already dominant companies. And who would trust Hegseth et. al., to integrate AI properly: Manage risks/tradeoffs/etc.?
— OTOH, maybe good news – The age of occupying and annexing territory is over. Recommended.
— Yet, same author: The U.S. model of warfare is obsolete. Recommended.
— Or a more conservative commentator: We are behind: How Chinese drones could defeat America.
